California micro-market
Healthcare practice financing in Ceres, California
Direct answer
Density decides a lot here. Ceres runs 17.7 providers per 10,000 residents, 87 clinicians against 49,253 people, 25 percent of them in physical, occupational, and speech therapy, while Stanislaus County lenders have approved 10 healthcare files worth $7,212,200 and the nearest metro is 3 miles out.
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- Population: 49,253 residents (25K-50K band)1
- Healthcare providers registered here: 87 across 20 fields2
- Median household income: $76,8623
- Largest provider field: Physical, occupational, and speech therapy: 22 registered providers2
- Medicare-certified providers in town: 1 across 1 categories4
- Nearest metro: Modesto, CA, 3 miles1
The clinical base a lender can verify here
Counted at the town's own addresses: 87 providers, 20 fields, 17.7 clinicians per 10,000 of the 49,253 residents here
| Field | Providers | Per 10,000 residents | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physical, occupational, and speech therapy | 22 | 4.5 | NPPES [2] |
| Primary care and family medicine | 12 | 2.4 | NPPES [2] |
| Chiropractic | 9 | 1.8 | NPPES [2] |
| General dentistry | 7 | 1.4 | NPPES [2] |
| Optometry and ophthalmology | 6 | 1.2 | NPPES [2] |
| DME and HME suppliers | 4 | 0.8 | NPPES [2] |
| SUD treatment and residential | 4 | 0.8 | NPPES [2] |
| Independent pharmacy | 4 | 0.8 | NPPES [2] |
| Behavioral and mental health group practices | 4 | 0.8 | NPPES [2] |
| Dialysis and infusion centers | 4 | 0.8 | NPPES [2] |
| Skilled nursing, assisted living, and memory care | 2 | 0.4 | NPPES [2] |
| Podiatry | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Home health | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Urgent care | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Dental specialties | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Non-medical home care | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| ABA and autism therapy | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Ketamine, TMS, and interventional psychiatry | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Specialty physician groups | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Telehealth and virtual clinics | 1 | 0.2 | NPPES [2] |
| Medical equipment suppliers | 5 | CMS [4] | |
| Dialysis facilities | 1 | CMS [4] |
Physical, occupational, and speech therapy carries 22 of the 87 enumerated providers here, and several of them can sit inside one practice. Read the column as clinicians, not owners.
What lenders have already approved in Stanislaus County
Lenders in Stanislaus County have already closed 10 healthcare approvals, averaging $721,220, which is the size a new file gets read beside
| What it measures | Value | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| SBA healthcare approvals | 10 | One published fiscal year, healthcare borrowers only [5] |
| Approved dollars | $7,212,200 | Approved, not disbursed, and not net of withdrawals [5] |
| Average approval | $721,220 | A mean, so one large approval moves it [5] |
| Lending establishments in the county | 224 | Credit intermediation offices sited in the county [6] |
How this data lands in an underwriting decision
The ratio that matters up front is 17.7 per 10,000, which decides whether a ramp schedule reads as conservative. A request measured against 10 prior Stanislaus County approvals is priced on precedent, which shortens the questions about valuation. Household income of $76,862 in Ceres is the number a lender uses to sanity check the self-pay share of a revenue projection.
Where a file from this town usually lands
- Practice acquisition
- Startup and de novo
- Working capital term loan
- Equipment financing and leasing
- Expansion, relocation, and build-out
The order comes from Ceres's own provider mix, which physical, occupational, and speech therapy dominates at 25 percent. What a partner can actually place in California is a separate question.
The first pages of a Ceres file
physical, occupational, and speech therapy, primary care and family medicine, chiropractic account for most of what is enumerated in Ceres, so those are the files funders see from this town
| Practice type | The pages that decide it | Typical capital event |
|---|---|---|
| Physical, occupational, and speech therapy (22) | Visits per case, Referral source concentration, Payer mix and authorization rules | Startup or expansion clinic |
| Primary care and family medicine (12) | Panel size, Value-based contract exposure, Provider productivity | Acquisition |
| Chiropractic (9) | Cash plan revenue, Personal injury receivable age, Visit volume | Startup or acquisition |
The first column is Ceres's own NPPES count. The rest is how the field is generally underwritten, whether the address is Ceres or anywhere else.
Ceres against nearby California markets
Comparables travel. These are the California towns whose density, at 17.7 per 10,000 here, gets weighed beside this one.
| Market | Population | Clinicians | Density per 10,000 | Distance in miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceres (current) | 49,253 | 87 | 17.7 | |
| Turlock | 72,888 | 405 | 55.6 | 9 |
| Riverbank | 25,625 | 71 | 27.7 | 9 |
| Oakdale | 23,209 | 89 | 38.3 | 13 |
| Ripon | 16,252 | 49 | 30.2 | 13 |
| Patterson | 25,495 | 64 | 25.1 | 13 |
| Manteca | 94,292 | 357 | 37.9 | 19 |
How Ceres sits against the nearest metro
Distance to Modesto, CA is 3 miles. Appraisers borrow Modesto, CA rents, and the 49,253 residents set the ceiling on collections. Median household income runs $76,862, which is the number a funder converts into case acceptance on anything elective or cash-pay. Referral flow comes from outside Ceres, which a projection needs to state plainly.
More of California
Ceres owners, answered
01How many providers practice in Ceres, and in what?
Across 20 fields, Ceres carries 87 enumerated clinicians, 17.7 per 10,000 of the 49,253 people living here. The concentration is in physical, occupational, and speech therapy, 22 of the total, then primary care and family medicine at 12. Count practices from that only with care.
02What does Stanislaus County's shortage designation change?
HRSA designates Stanislaus County for primary care, dental, mental health. That opens loan repayment programs for clinicians recruited into Ceres and evidences a staffing ramp in a 49,253 resident market.
03Is Ceres underwritten as part of Modesto, CA?
Comparables and demand split at 3 miles. An appraiser prices the lease and the equipment off Modesto, CA; the revenue line has to hold up against 49,253 local residents.
04Which fields carry the volume in Ceres?
Volume concentrates in physical, occupational, and speech therapy, 22 of them, ahead of primary care and family medicine at 12, across 20 fields. A thin second field usually means a longer search for staff than a pro forma allows for.
05What does SBA lending look like around Ceres?
The county file behind Ceres holds 10 healthcare approvals totaling $7,212,200, an average of $721,220. Those are the loan sizes lenders in Stanislaus County have already carried.
06Is there local lending capacity in Stanislaus County?
County Business Patterns records 224 credit intermediation establishments in Stanislaus County. That is the local origination bench, and it decides whether a file gets underwritten by somebody who has seen Ceres rents and resale before or by somebody working from a screen.
Sources
- 1U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, vintage 2024
- 2CMS NPPES, monthly full replacement file
- 3U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-year 2023, table B19013
- 4CMS Care Compare provider datasets
- 5U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 approvals
- 6U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2022
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